Tiltje asked me about this hand...

This is a great hand to analyze, a few options here, you played it how I would play it from the info you gave me, interested to hear how it finished up for you. Need more info on your your position, position of the callers, stack size before hands and blinds. But I am going to estimate for analyzation purposes.
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Got a hand for you. Mid tourn 3 bet J10 diamonds 2 callers flop k73 one diamond C bet made 1 call turn Q diamonds bet 1/2 pot guy shoves I played the hand give me your opinion....
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For analysis purposes, im going to say relatives stacks 11,000 (both you and your callers) so this would be shortly after break in the 3750. Blinds 200/400. We will say you were cutoff and called by button and Big blind.

So you raised to 1200 pre with J10 diamonds in cutoff, good play. 2 callers, pot is now around 3800. Your stack is now 9800 and so is the stack of the button. BB checks, you C bet (How much?). I would reccomend half pot here. about 1900. Your stack is now 7900. You're about to commit yourself if you bet again and you need to be aware of your stack vs the pot ratio. The button calls and the big blind folds. Pot is now 7600. Turn Brings the Q diamonds. This is where you have to stop, not be in a rush, analyze a few things.

pot vs stacks is 1-1, whats your equity in this pot right now. You have 15 outs to almost the nuts. Plus, your caller could be floating you with any number of underpairs, a high, possibly the K, even a 78suited type of hand.

I took the initial 44% of hands that he couldve called your raise with here, that consisted of all pairs, all big cards all the way down to suited connectors and all K7, hands and higher. I then took out everything that he wouldve folded here and left all A's, all hands with a pair of Ks or 7s in it and every pair in case he was testing your C bet. that left me with 33% of all hands he could still have. I ran your hand, this flop and turn vs that range and youre sitting at about 38.4% pot equity vs his range here. This doesnt include fold equity for pairs of 7s and Aces that he will dump on the turn. He will probably call an all in shove with any K that he called the flop with. He could have a combination of any 58 hands right now. Vs an all in shove right here I believe he will/should fold 31 of those 58 hands so your fold equity is pretty strong about 54% here to an all in.

So.. your options now, check call, possibly save you some chips if u miss but you have no fold equity here. And if he bets, he will bet at least half his stack at least and you will have to fold or shove. Next option is to bet half your stack, but what good is this, if he shoves you have to call youre so far into it. The last option is Shove, if he calls, hope that he folds, vs the hands that he calls you with here I believe you have ut if he doesnt you have about a 32.5% chance of winning with your hand.

All in all, without more knowledge about this player, tight, loose, floater, etc. I think you have about a 5 in 12 chance (42%)of winning this pot with an all in shove here. 3 in 6 that he folds, 2 in 6 that you win if he calls.

***NOTE*** Just reread your post and you said that he shoved after the turn. So I am curious if you checked first, or if this guy was in the blinds and had first to act. That does change things up. I would probably have to fold here knowing that your equity in the hand is only 33%. You always want to get your money in good and have some fold equity if possible. But.. the above might give you some ideas if you did check and give him the option to shove, he couldve been floating you and now pushing you so you might be stronger than those #s show depending on what he has, a J or 10 may still be good. BUT.. you also could have a smaller flush draw here. I would suggest a fold if you get in this spot.


Further more.. something I might add for your consideration, the difference in pot size if you didnt bet so much preflop. Say you opened for 2.5x BB here so 1000 which is usually what I bet vs a 400 big blind with any raising hand. 2 callers makes this pot only 3200, half pot bet and called makes the pot only 6400 rather than 7800. Now you have a little more wiggle room later in the hand to make a move at this pot without risking your entire stack. Just something to think about.


This is a good one for discussion, I would be interested to hear what everyone has to say about this.

Wiz