WPT Key hands -- looking at ranges and odds

Hand 1
Early trney hand vs solid player
A5clubs, board Kc10c5h, 20K relative stacks, blinds 100-200

I raise from button to 500, bb calls, he checks, i bet 500 again, he 3 bets me to 15, i felt like it was a test and I had a huge drawing hand. With Nut flush draw and Pair. So I 4 bet to 3000, he calls, turn is a Qd, he checks, I check to see the river, river comes 4d, he checks, i check and he shows down K10 for 2 pair. I lose 3500 chips.

Odds -- on the flop I was a 49 to 51% underdog, coinflip. I hope by reraising him i could get him to fold on the flop, vs a 3bet bluff, of course he wouldve, and possibly vs a 1 pair hand he wouldve folded here.

If nothing else, I thought it was a good move, it gave me a chance to take down the pot there, allowed me to get the pot bigger in case i hit, and I was able to see the turn and river for free, the Q was scary enough of a card that he didnt bet anymore and I saw the turn and river blanks for free.
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Hand #2
Another hand I played that I couldve played stronger and won was a BB special, 96diamonds

1-200 blinds, one limper, small blind and me. 600 pot
Flop came out 4d7c8c, I had open ended straight on the flop. check check, limper bets 500, sb folds, I call to try to hit a well disguised str8. Turn brough a 2d, i now had 15 outs to a flush or str8.. here i made a mistake when i checked, the limper bets out 1000, and i reluctantly called again. The river was a Qs i check he quickly tables QJclubs.. he was on a sraw the whole time, i hated to think that a large bet or checkraise on the turn wouldve taken that pot right there.

Odds 30% to 70% pot equity on the flop (open end straight and any pair)
Turn brought me a flush draw and i went to 40% to 60%, but.. if I couldve read his weakness here, and maybe put him on the impression i had flopped a big hand, i couldve popped to 2500-3000 and got him off the hand I think.

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Hand #3
Next up was a hand I won, and I wonder if I extracted the full value.
I had 66, raised pot of maybe 4 players and maybe 1200 preflop, flop was 988, 2 spades. checks around, I check, and the turn is a beautiful 6, early pos bets 700, i call hoping to get some more chasers in there and everyone folds. Well the river was a K and hits the third spade, and now this guy bets 2500 into a 2600 pot. I was expecting a more of like 1200-1500 bet which I wouldve raised, so I thought about it for a long-time, betting that much to me almost looked like he was trying to catch someone with the flush on his boat. Finally I just called, almost expecting to see K8,89, 99, or even 86, there were just so many hands that beat me here that I didnt want to open another opportunity for him to raise, with 20K behind. I was pretty happy to rake this 7500 pot when he mucked.
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IRight now I won't discuss the 2 hands I lost with overpairs vs sets of 999, I shouldve just slowed down and folded both times. One Pair hands, and I couldnt fold. Although I did play a set of 555 perfectly to more than double from 8K to 18K at one point early on after the other set loss.
So, my next blog may be about folding when your beat, my new mission in the game of poker, dont call when you know your beat. Lay it down. I am hoping my good friend Doc Bloom will help me fix that part of my game!

Regional World Poker Tour Event This weekend and the 3 card Straight flush draw

Geared up to play in a 1500.00 buyin tomorrow, day 1B, for the WPT main event here in Jacksonville. Talkin about Range and Poker Stove with my friend Doc Bloom in Jacksonville last night. One thing we were really talking about that I think is key to making it through deepstack multi-day live events is patterns. Seeing betting patterns, seeing card patterns, and hand reading.

I love suited connectors and I try to play them alot and as profitably as I can so I analyze them alot. One of my favorite things to say when I have a suited connector in my hand is, "I had a straight flush going".

One hand I analyzed on my own today was flopping a 3 card str8 flush draw. Not possible you say? Well, Let me give you an example, its early in a deepstack event, you call a 3bet raise of 150 with 5c6c,(I always assume I am about a 35% hand equity with a mid suited connector vs a raise).
Flop comes out 2d,7c Jd , what do u have here? Well, more than you might think.

First, you have 567 of clubs, raise bets 1/2 pot to 200. I really want to see the next card. I need a 4,8, or any club to give me a straight or a flush draw on the turn. (4 or 8 of clubs to give me a 15out river) What are my odds, well, assuming my of raise had thetop 9.8% of hands, I am still a 20% chance to win this hand. IF the pf raise had a large over pair, im only at 10% right now. BUT.. I call given the huge implied offs I am getting. pot is now 800, and the turn brings me a beautiful 4 of clubs. What are my odds now? Well, against a random top 9.8% of hands I am sitting at 39% chance, vs a large pair, I am sitting at 33%. BUT... If I hit this 15outer, I am confident I have a winner.

Next up.. what does this joker bet on the turn? if he has a large pair, and he recognizes he is up vs a strong drawing hand he might push you off the pot with a large over pot sized bet, otherwise, he may not realize and bet 1/2 to 3/4 the pot, with a bet of pot or less, with relative stacks of 10-20000 I am calling here to try to hit my str8 or flush, and possibly make a huge dent on this guys stack with my large 2 pot size river bet. Say he bets 700 into the 800chip pot, I call to make the pot 2200, i hit a nice 3spades, looks innocent enough, I am betting out here with a 3500-4000 chip bet to almost make it look like I missed and am trying to bluff him off the pot. If he is just stubborn enough with a pair of Aces he will pobably call.

New Blog Memorial Day weekend 2011

Well, its been about a year since I wrote.. couldnt stay away any longer.. I have been playing on Gr88 and Feltstars recently and doing ok. I also have been playing live and plan on playing more live poker in the next few weeks so i am going to be posting about my play there. My local poker room, In Jacksonville has secured the World Poker Tour for next spring as well as some smaller events so I want to be geared up to play some events.

I had a hand in a 2-2NL game Friday night that I remembered well and I wanted to post about it. The table was full of weak players and I was primarily just waiting to snap off a couple of the larger stacks at the table. it litterally took me 90 minutes to win a hand, and then nothing much else for another hour or 2, but then i went on an unbelievable hand winning spree with anything I played. One legitimate hand i was in, i had AQ and raised to 10.00 from the button. I was called by 2 players and the Flop came out Qd6c4d, check check and I bet 15. The player on the blinds that called check raised me to 45.00. Our stacks were around 300 each. I really didnt think he was overly strong because i didnt think he would check raise me on the flop if he was. I put him maybe on a weaker Q, Q10,QJ, or QK. I figured he was testing me so I wanted to take it down right there. I reraised him to 115. I figured this amount because in a live game I could find out right there if this guy was for real or just testing. If he slammed it all in, I could fold and still be left with 165.00. Instead, as I expected he went into the tank and didnt like my reraise at all. He reluctantly called and i then put him on possibly a Q, but also maybe a pair and a flush draw or somethign. The turn was a beautiful 9c, he checked, pot was now about 260.00, and I went ahead and shoved in my 165.00. He went into the tank again and put me on QQ KK AA, but said I had him but he had outs, I said, are you on 10J diamonds? with 15 outs, i was worried, i looked down and no D in my hand so I knew he did have alot of outs. Anyway, he finally said he had 46d, flopped a pair and a flush draw and no help on the turn. He made a good decision to fold there and we didnt get to see the river.

When i got home I did some hand analysis on poker stove I thought I would share. On that flop with his hand he was a small favorite to win the hand and he made a good raise especially since it was good odds that I didnt have the Q. He was 52% vs my 48%.

When he called my raise though, and the 9c came out, he went down to 32% vs my 68%. I was in a much better position. Although, for him to call 165.00 to win a pot of 550.00, he probably had the odds to call that river bet and try to hit the 33%. Depends if you want to preserve your stack or if you have the bank to play the solid odds.

I'll be back posting my adventures again I hope youll read.

Wiz