So, I had this hand last night, gut feeling said call, I didn't know my odds, and my chips stack was medium, and I folded it, probably correctly, but it haunted me because i would've won and raked a 40K pot.
I had a stack of 27,000 and was in the BB with 62suited, blinds were 2000/4000, and there was around 1200 in antes in the pot. the Button shoves for 11000, and the small blind goes all in for 14000. If I call, it will cost me 10,000 to win a pot with around 41000 in it.
Do you make the call?
By the numbers:
I used poker stove, and I gave the first raiser a wide range of top 15% of hands, I gave the sb a range of top 5% of hands. Pretty tight analysis as u can see by the actual hands. My odds in this case were 20.4%. so, I'm getting 20% to make a 25% call, not so great, after running the numbers I decided that I made the right laydown for my chip stack, if I lose, I leave myself with only 17000. Now, what would you do if you have 50,60 or even 100K chip stack, I would call.
Also, if these guys possibly both have Aces and an over, that would increase my equity to 28%. In reality, after seeing the hands, original raiser had A9, sb had K8suited, my equity was smack dab at 25% so as far as odds go, I would've been getting odds to make this gamble. But, like I said above, your chips in your stack are important at this point. Hard to gamble on a 25% chance to win 25% chance when you are risking 33% of your stack/.
Good for thoughts tho, and like i said, I personally would make this call if i had a chip stack to justify gambling 10K chips, and even though I would look like a donk, I theoretically could justify this call by an even amount of pot odds to make the call.
Thanks for reading - hope to hear your thoughts
wizardmickey
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