Playing bottom 2pair, vs Pressure from Chipleader

Had this hand tonight and I ran a bunch of analyzation on it. 4 left in 12 man qualifier for (1) 50K seat. My stack was 6500, big stack was 14000, next was 2000 and 1000. 4 way limped pot, I held 107, flop came 710J. Blinds were only 75/150 and the pot was now 600. Checked around to me, I bet 400. Big stack raises to 800 everyone else folds. Comes back to me and I try to put him on a hand. KJ/QJ type hand jumps out to me but 89, KQ, were all in my head too. So, 2 small stacks, he's the big stack and I win this im cruising to a win. There's 2 ways to play this hand, try to figure out a way to get out, or get it all in. I got it all in and i'll tell you the rest of the hand later.

My argument here is, In this spot, probably a fine move, 10.00 sattelite, HAVE to win this tourney to get the seat. BUT.. you got to analyze the other stacks here you dont want to bust out in this spot when the money pays out 1-2-3-4 and beyond. When I tell you these win %s, you might start to understand the odds, and consider that a laydown is maybe the best move here.

Now, lets get the sattelite out of the way and pretend this tourneys pays 900 to first, 600 to 2nd, 300, and 240.

Next lets put this guy on the 3 hands that scrolled through my mind. KQ, KJ, 89. That range vs my 2 pair. My hand equity, only 51.8%. Do you want to risk your whole stack thats 3 times bigger than the next stack and 6x bigger than the low stack. i can win 240 here, or fold and surely at least pickup 600.

Lets expand his range, we will keep these hands, but add all the jacks down to J6, same hand as mine. Since he didnt raise preflop im going to rule out all pairs, overpairs or sets. This number, We are 54.6% to win this hand. We invested 550 of our 6500+ in this hand. Lets not risk it here in what is a virtual coinflip with bottom 2 pair. The big stack is showing resistance on a board that he could hold the nut str8 already, or 2 higher pair already, or even a vulnerable over pair to our hand.

Lemme tell you how the hand played out. I decided I wanted to get it all in and go for the win, I reraised him to 2400, he immediately shoved, I called and he of course had, 89, no more help for me and I was out in 4th, shaking my head and ready to goto work analyzing this situation.

Lately, I find myself making deep runs and final tables in the new larger fields on the site, i build a big stack and often when i do make it to the final, ill be sitting in 1-3rd with 10 left. Lately, somehow I manage to bust out 6-7th. A huge problem ive had recently is with JJ QQ KK running into AA. For this excercise, Ill use QQ. I am trying to learn to lay this type of hand down in the similar situation as above. Im in 2nd in chips, 7 players left. I raise, big stack reraises, i shove, and run into AK or AA, but, in this situation, I ran some #'s vs a top 5% hand range. My QQ is only 48% equity in this spot. Do you want to take a chance here?, especially if youre aggressive and good at picking up chips in smaller pots. 50/50 shot when youre 2nd in chips, bigstack is looking like he wants to play a big pot, and you might have the bottom 3-4 spots outchiped by 5-1 or more. Your odds are even lower vs AK JJ KK AA. Now youre in a 37.9% hole. You have to remember, big stack doesnt want to mess with you either. If he looks willing, think about somewhere between 38% and 50%. You got to ask yourself. "Do you feel lucky"?


Hope this helps you out, I know i helped myself out by getting my thoughts around this situation.

wiz