Hand Analysis from weekend Live tourney

Starting to play a few tourneys online again.. took a break this summer, played a little more live events, started a real job, took a trip to Vegas, played at Hollywood Fl Hardrock and Tampa Fl Hardrock and getting ready to play some events in the north florida poker classic In Jacksonville next week.

Played a live tourney Friday night and I wanted to discuss a hand I played that had the potential to win me the tourney or cut my stack down low.

26 players in the tourney, down to 5 players left, Paid 5, all of us in the money. 260,000 chips in play. I had ave stack with 57000. Blinds are 4000/8000 and im in the BB with A4 suited clubs. Button shoves, with 27000, he is a solid player but I knew that with the stacks/blinds at these levels his range was wide. I put him on any Ace, Any 2 broadway cards, or any pair. I made the call, but I wanted to further analyze the play today.

I opened up my poker stove and plugged these ranges in vs my A4clubs.
First of all, I knew I was calling 19,000 to win a pot of 58,000 chips so i was getting just under 3-1 on my money which is always hard to pass up with any Ace. I also was using about half of my remaining stack after the big blind to make this call.

When the Poker stove results came back it showed that I was a 45.7% underdog vs this range which is still very good odds considering I was getting 3-1 to call. When we turned over the cards, He showed KQ which was what I hoped I would see, 2 broadway cards. I was a 60% vs 40% favorite. Flop and turn were low and safe, but the river turned a K and he had knocked me down to 30,000 chips. I ended up getting my J10 all in from the small blind vs AK and was knocked out in 4th.

Hope to see ya all on the tables again soon, playing fewer tourneys online but more higher priced buyins like the weekly 50K guaranteed and a couple nightly tourneys a couple days a week.

Chuck Myers
Wizardmickey
wizardmickey - Twitter

WSOP Shares

I am Selling shares of myself for the WSOP main event.. if anyone wants any let me know and we can exchange a written acknowledgement

Shares are $50.00 each and and they equal .05% of any winnings (10,000 buyin at even money) I am selling a total of 50 shares only.

a $50.00 share = about 40K when I win!

I can transact through paypal and email confirmations...
Chuck Myers
wizardmickey

PL Omaha HI/LO

Just took down my first ever PL O/8 trney, im pretty pumped, just a 5.50 buyin but fun time. funny how aggressiveness is the key in even that type of trney when the blinds get up there.. I had the regulars pissssed off, but actually played pretty well, had the chiplead most of the trney, early on I hit quad Aces and quad Jacks in consec hands and got guys all in to scoop the entire pot.. very nice. I cant write much about the game because im no expert, but i think of course just not getting overly involved without the nuts by the turn is the key.. strong betting and playing your A23's are very key. fun time tho, also won the 5.00 headsup trney right before that... hadnt made alot f money today, but won 2 of 2 trneys and playing well again.

North Florida Poker Classic Key Hands

Played in Day 1C of the NFPC today, deep stack trney, 20k starting chips and 30min levels, 3 day event. Started off pretty good, and I wanted to post a couple of my interesting hands.

I wasnt seeing much early picked up a few small pots, then with blids about 100-200 I get 78 clubs in late position, 2-3 limpers ahead so I decide to raise it up to steal either preflop or on the flop. 2 Callers, flop was 2310, utg player leads out with a 600 bet, i raise him to 2000 and a player in the blinds folds UTg calls, turn is another deuce he checks, i bet 3000 saying PLEASE FOLD.. he calls, river is a J, he checks, it was early I decided to give up so I check, ready to muck my hand and he says,You got me, 5 high. He had 45suited and was chasing that open ender.. WOW my 8 high takes down a 12000ish pot. The button player cant believe it, he is so pissed he said he folded JJ.

Then a few hands later, I am in the small blind with J8clubs, a few limpers around and I call. Flop comes out 78Q all hearts, no one bets, and turn is the J hearts. So, I have 2 pair but 4 hearts on board, i check again and it checks around. Finally river comes out, a beautiful J of Spades for a full boat. I bet out 2000, BB RAISES me to 5000, I looked at the board, I was pretty convinced he had A high flush, so I reraise him to 10K, hoping he will shove about 15 more to get me all in, and he does, but then i was like damn. Does this guy have me beat? I thought maybe JQ, but it didnt seem like it. I started thinking maybe 77 or 88.. either way I called, he turns over J7, and I double my stack to about 50K.

Lots of others, but then after 2nd break i started to take some hits.. misplayed a couple of hands, got reraised and had to fold.. Went from 42K to about 25K, really hurt, one hand I lost 14000 when the top pair on the board 7 paired, I had 99 and was looking good on the flop, guy check raised me all in when the turn came out a 2nd 7 so I had to fold.

My last hand of the night, with just 30min left in Day 1, i got QQ in the big blind, i have 25500 chips left, blinds are now 600/1200, button raises to 2400, SB calls, I reraise it to 12500 trying to take down the pot there, Button calls, flop comes out J high, BEAUTY! I shove my last 13K chips in.. The dude says "This is probably a bad call" and calls and turns over AQ.. As usual, an A hits the turn and I am outta there. Bad beats hurt worse live, because theres such a finality of it all. I hate it.
Wiz
wizardmickey33@yahoo.com email and IM
@wizardmickey Twitter


If you dont own this book... you're way behind...

MTT leaderboard trney, WSOP package win

Wow, took some days off, got focused and play an almost perfect trney in the mtt leaderboardtrney yesterday. doubled up first hand when i slowplayed KK on a Q high board and got AQ all in with me. built my stack steadily the whole trney... didnt really play many huge pots, not one suckout all in, i did have a big hand with KQ vs AA when i called a raise K on the flop, he bet I called, K on the turn and I bet out and he jammed his whole stack in with AA.

The only questionable move I made was with 4 left, Sliekas was raising alot with big stack, I called with KQ suited and this was the 3rd or 4th time this happened, playrus21 kept jamming all in and it felt like he was squeazing, in the spot, so i felt his range was wide and I called for 70K or so I barely had him covered, he actually had a good hand this time, 1010, but I spiked K on the flop, took the chiplead and never gave it up. I dont like KQ all in but this had happened numererous times so I had a reason for finally calling him down I felt he could have almost anything here and my equity was strong.. just for #s sake I put him on top 30% of hands here and I was 54% vs that range.. I dont love that call even now, but i was third in chips, and needed a big double up to win so i went for it.

Anyway, I was just going to say, sometimes if youre running bad, a few days off the tables will make u play alot more solid when u come back.

Talk to you guys soon..

wiz

ps., im going to start posting links to some of the poker books i have, i think i have most all of them! but I really like a few and this is a good one.. a few upper level moves u can use from time to time.. great stuff here.

Where's Wiz

Working on some life level stuff guys and girls.. not playing much for a couple of weeks. I'll be in the big Saturday MTT tourney, might be moving from sunny florida this month. Doing some consulting work for company so thats going to take up most of my poker time this month. Need to get my head back in the game anyway, and I hope when I come back to it, I'll be 100% focused. I'll try to post some blogs here and there for the next few weeks.

Playing bottom 2pair, vs Pressure from Chipleader

Had this hand tonight and I ran a bunch of analyzation on it. 4 left in 12 man qualifier for (1) 50K seat. My stack was 6500, big stack was 14000, next was 2000 and 1000. 4 way limped pot, I held 107, flop came 710J. Blinds were only 75/150 and the pot was now 600. Checked around to me, I bet 400. Big stack raises to 800 everyone else folds. Comes back to me and I try to put him on a hand. KJ/QJ type hand jumps out to me but 89, KQ, were all in my head too. So, 2 small stacks, he's the big stack and I win this im cruising to a win. There's 2 ways to play this hand, try to figure out a way to get out, or get it all in. I got it all in and i'll tell you the rest of the hand later.

My argument here is, In this spot, probably a fine move, 10.00 sattelite, HAVE to win this tourney to get the seat. BUT.. you got to analyze the other stacks here you dont want to bust out in this spot when the money pays out 1-2-3-4 and beyond. When I tell you these win %s, you might start to understand the odds, and consider that a laydown is maybe the best move here.

Now, lets get the sattelite out of the way and pretend this tourneys pays 900 to first, 600 to 2nd, 300, and 240.

Next lets put this guy on the 3 hands that scrolled through my mind. KQ, KJ, 89. That range vs my 2 pair. My hand equity, only 51.8%. Do you want to risk your whole stack thats 3 times bigger than the next stack and 6x bigger than the low stack. i can win 240 here, or fold and surely at least pickup 600.

Lets expand his range, we will keep these hands, but add all the jacks down to J6, same hand as mine. Since he didnt raise preflop im going to rule out all pairs, overpairs or sets. This number, We are 54.6% to win this hand. We invested 550 of our 6500+ in this hand. Lets not risk it here in what is a virtual coinflip with bottom 2 pair. The big stack is showing resistance on a board that he could hold the nut str8 already, or 2 higher pair already, or even a vulnerable over pair to our hand.

Lemme tell you how the hand played out. I decided I wanted to get it all in and go for the win, I reraised him to 2400, he immediately shoved, I called and he of course had, 89, no more help for me and I was out in 4th, shaking my head and ready to goto work analyzing this situation.

Lately, I find myself making deep runs and final tables in the new larger fields on the site, i build a big stack and often when i do make it to the final, ill be sitting in 1-3rd with 10 left. Lately, somehow I manage to bust out 6-7th. A huge problem ive had recently is with JJ QQ KK running into AA. For this excercise, Ill use QQ. I am trying to learn to lay this type of hand down in the similar situation as above. Im in 2nd in chips, 7 players left. I raise, big stack reraises, i shove, and run into AK or AA, but, in this situation, I ran some #'s vs a top 5% hand range. My QQ is only 48% equity in this spot. Do you want to take a chance here?, especially if youre aggressive and good at picking up chips in smaller pots. 50/50 shot when youre 2nd in chips, bigstack is looking like he wants to play a big pot, and you might have the bottom 3-4 spots outchiped by 5-1 or more. Your odds are even lower vs AK JJ KK AA. Now youre in a 37.9% hole. You have to remember, big stack doesnt want to mess with you either. If he looks willing, think about somewhere between 38% and 50%. You got to ask yourself. "Do you feel lucky"?


Hope this helps you out, I know i helped myself out by getting my thoughts around this situation.

wiz

Playing Suited Connectors, When, How, Odds

I personally love it when I see a suited connector, for this example we will use 89 suited in my hand. I get a tingly feeling inside, because I know something exciting could happen. I might get in this hand and catch a straight, 2 pair, flush, OR, a flush draw with decisions to make, or maybe even just a pair and feel like I have the best of it. Either way, it gets my blood pumping

I wanted to talk about some recent hands I've played and seen, why, what the odds were.

First 89hearts, I had 2250 chips left in the last hand before the break in a 1500freezeout, blinds were 75/150. Big stack on the button with around 10000, raised into my BB. I reshoved my stack in here. Why? Well, first, I was shortstacked, if I am going to go out, Id rather do it before the break. That might now be the best way to look at it, but id rather double up or go out before the break if possible. Also, I figured that the big stack could have a very wide range of hands in this spot stealing on the button. So I had what i thought was about 3 in 5 fold equity in this spot or about 60% that he would fold. If I got called, I knew my odds. I put this player on a wide range of top 40% or so of hands, again this range, my 89suited is about 40.1%.so all in all, I have about 5 out of 10 chance that I will win this hand either by a pf fold, or a showdown win. In this case, he was on the high side of his range with AK and called, but, I flopped and 8 and no more help and I won the hand. I don't suggest this kind of recklessness with a medium or average stack, you re looking for better chances to get your money in, but when you re short in this spot its a good enough hand to shove light.

2nd hand I saw was another player at my table but I like how he played the hand.
guy had about 10000 chips, and sitting on the BB, for 200 chips, with 89clubs, late position shortstack with 1400 shoves it all in. This is another spot i don't mind a call. You're not getting the best of odds in this spot but you got to open up and take some chances here and the range on this late position all in was wide. Again, we will say top 40% of hands. With the odds that I plugged in, he had about a 39% equity in this hand, and figure he has 200 in the pot already, now he is calling 1200 to win a pot worth about 3100 in this spot that's about 38.7%. Right on the number but.. when you re talking about 12% of your chips for to pickup 31% I am ok with that move. Anyway, the hand came down AJ8 with 2 clubs. So automatically thought the 89 was going to win here even though he might be a little behind still, he was 41% after the flop, but the turn was an 8spades and now he was 90.9%.

Lastly, this didn't happen today, but I wanted to talk about open shoving with 89suited. Now, no reason to ever do this unless the Blinds are decent, prob antes kicked in as well. I also wouldn't do this if your "M" =((your stack)/(sb,bb,+ante))is more than 5, unless its more than 15-20 and the BB is less than 5.

Example, blinds are 200/400 and ante is 400, in this case that equals 1000 chips in the blinds and antes. So you divide your stac by 1000, if you have 5000 or less and your M is 5 or less, than youre in danger zone. Its not a bad move to move in, and try to pickup 20% of your chip stack. In this case vs a Random hand, your pot equity is 51.4%, now if you get called, your equity is going to be alot lower, he will put you on top 30-40% of hands so could call you pretty wide. I would say top 20%. So now, your equity is going to be more like 36.5. All in all, I like your chances, 51% over random, only getting called with top 20% of hands and still winning that 35.5%. So the final # would be 1 in 5 call you, and about 3 of 5 win at showdown if called. So your edge here is 6 of 10 (60%) chance of a fold or a showdown win.

note.. as mentioned above if you have over 15 or so M and the BB has less than 5, so if you have 15+ and Bb has less than 5000, you can make this move profitably in this spot as well. More on "M" zones in another article.


Thanks for reading, hope to hear your opinions here

@Wizardmickey twitter
wizardmickey@yahoo.com, email and IM

Movies

Just for fun I was going to put some movies that Ive watched online into the blog. At the bottom of the page is "Kick-ass". Pretty funny, pretty decent pirated version below. The movie is funny, not really what I expected, I'm no movie critic, but on a scale of poker hands, I'd give it Pocket 66, I'll try to post them as I get them. Also, if youre having trouble getting it to play, click the arrows on the bottom part of the screen twice and it should start.

Merge Site update

I was just wondering what everyone thought of the new site tourneys and number of players. I don't really mind the bigger fields, ive been making alot of final tables with anywhere from 100-200 players in the field. The dissapointing part is, I dont know whatever happened to my final table game, last night, 2 fields, both 105 players, I got down to final and the other one had 15 or so and I had the lead in both tourneys with around 100K chips in both. This was the late night 3000 and 2500 guarantees. Somehow I managed to pull out a 7th in both. I dont know what was happening. I got KK vs AA in one of them and got all in, the big stack player had been limping and folding a lot of pots to a raise and he did it that time with AA but I prob wouldnt have gotten away from that anyway. The other one though, I had
100K with 10 left, next guy had about 60, I lost my stack down to about 60K and then I got in a blind vs blind hand with 94, flop came out 3 hearst with 9 high. guy checked to me, I bet, he raised, and for some unknown reason, with 3-4 small stacks out there, I shoved 50K more into the pot and the player had flopped the flush and knocked me down to 4000. That was one of the stupidest things ive ever done.It was like final table came and my brain turned into Jelly. It was after 3am in the morning but that's no excuse. 900 for first in one, and 750 in the other. The player I doubled up, zgjish, was in both also, he got a first and a 2nd for a 1450.00 night, I had him crushed in both tourneys with 10 left and I got paid 195. Sickning. Anyway, my new commitment is to play better when I get down to final table. Especially dont take many chances when there are 3-4 small stacks waiting to bust out. I just wish I could go back and play those again last night. I shoulve won some bigger money for sure.

62 Call in the Big blind?

So, I had this hand last night, gut feeling said call, I didn't know my odds, and my chips stack was medium, and I folded it, probably correctly, but it haunted me because i would've won and raked a 40K pot.

I had a stack of 27,000 and was in the BB with 62suited, blinds were 2000/4000, and there was around 1200 in antes in the pot. the Button shoves for 11000, and the small blind goes all in for 14000. If I call, it will cost me 10,000 to win a pot with around 41000 in it.

Do you make the call?

By the numbers:

I used poker stove, and I gave the first raiser a wide range of top 15% of hands, I gave the sb a range of top 5% of hands. Pretty tight analysis as u can see by the actual hands. My odds in this case were 20.4%. so, I'm getting 20% to make a 25% call, not so great, after running the numbers I decided that I made the right laydown for my chip stack, if I lose, I leave myself with only 17000. Now, what would you do if you have 50,60 or even 100K chip stack, I would call.

Also, if these guys possibly both have Aces and an over, that would increase my equity to 28%. In reality, after seeing the hands, original raiser had A9, sb had K8suited, my equity was smack dab at 25% so as far as odds go, I would've been getting odds to make this gamble. But, like I said above, your chips in your stack are important at this point. Hard to gamble on a 25% chance to win 25% chance when you are risking 33% of your stack/.

Good for thoughts tho, and like i said, I personally would make this call if i had a chip stack to justify gambling 10K chips, and even though I would look like a donk, I theoretically could justify this call by an even amount of pot odds to make the call.

Thanks for reading - hope to hear your thoughts

wizardmickey

Chip Me up Staking

I took some time off of the Chipmeup.com site because I was struggling for awhile and I didnt want to sell of my shares when I wasnt really winning anything. I jumped back on today and posted the Sunday 50K gurantee this week. It's now a freezeout so the value is really good. Click the link above and go buy some shares.

Funding your GR88.com acct

I just wanted to mention, if any USA players (or other countries) (we just happen to have alot of issues with american laws and banks), anyway if you are trying to move over to Gr88.com and youre having trouble funding your acct, let me know. If you have paypal, and you need money in your acct. Get in contact with me, if you send the cash thru to my paypal acct, as soon as its in my acct, ill immediately transfer from my gr88 to yours for 2% charge to cover the paypal fees. Good way for you to get money in your acct quick, and for me to cash out quick. If you're interested in doing this also for other players, either in or out to paypal let me know. We could start a network of buyers and sellers and move money around this way to save time and higher fees of doing this through ewalletxpress or waitng for checks to come in from the site.




wiz
wizardmickey33 yahoo IM
wizardmickey skype

Tiltje asked me about this hand...

This is a great hand to analyze, a few options here, you played it how I would play it from the info you gave me, interested to hear how it finished up for you. Need more info on your your position, position of the callers, stack size before hands and blinds. But I am going to estimate for analyzation purposes.
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Got a hand for you. Mid tourn 3 bet J10 diamonds 2 callers flop k73 one diamond C bet made 1 call turn Q diamonds bet 1/2 pot guy shoves I played the hand give me your opinion....
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For analysis purposes, im going to say relatives stacks 11,000 (both you and your callers) so this would be shortly after break in the 3750. Blinds 200/400. We will say you were cutoff and called by button and Big blind.

So you raised to 1200 pre with J10 diamonds in cutoff, good play. 2 callers, pot is now around 3800. Your stack is now 9800 and so is the stack of the button. BB checks, you C bet (How much?). I would reccomend half pot here. about 1900. Your stack is now 7900. You're about to commit yourself if you bet again and you need to be aware of your stack vs the pot ratio. The button calls and the big blind folds. Pot is now 7600. Turn Brings the Q diamonds. This is where you have to stop, not be in a rush, analyze a few things.

pot vs stacks is 1-1, whats your equity in this pot right now. You have 15 outs to almost the nuts. Plus, your caller could be floating you with any number of underpairs, a high, possibly the K, even a 78suited type of hand.

I took the initial 44% of hands that he couldve called your raise with here, that consisted of all pairs, all big cards all the way down to suited connectors and all K7, hands and higher. I then took out everything that he wouldve folded here and left all A's, all hands with a pair of Ks or 7s in it and every pair in case he was testing your C bet. that left me with 33% of all hands he could still have. I ran your hand, this flop and turn vs that range and youre sitting at about 38.4% pot equity vs his range here. This doesnt include fold equity for pairs of 7s and Aces that he will dump on the turn. He will probably call an all in shove with any K that he called the flop with. He could have a combination of any 58 hands right now. Vs an all in shove right here I believe he will/should fold 31 of those 58 hands so your fold equity is pretty strong about 54% here to an all in.

So.. your options now, check call, possibly save you some chips if u miss but you have no fold equity here. And if he bets, he will bet at least half his stack at least and you will have to fold or shove. Next option is to bet half your stack, but what good is this, if he shoves you have to call youre so far into it. The last option is Shove, if he calls, hope that he folds, vs the hands that he calls you with here I believe you have ut if he doesnt you have about a 32.5% chance of winning with your hand.

All in all, without more knowledge about this player, tight, loose, floater, etc. I think you have about a 5 in 12 chance (42%)of winning this pot with an all in shove here. 3 in 6 that he folds, 2 in 6 that you win if he calls.

***NOTE*** Just reread your post and you said that he shoved after the turn. So I am curious if you checked first, or if this guy was in the blinds and had first to act. That does change things up. I would probably have to fold here knowing that your equity in the hand is only 33%. You always want to get your money in good and have some fold equity if possible. But.. the above might give you some ideas if you did check and give him the option to shove, he couldve been floating you and now pushing you so you might be stronger than those #s show depending on what he has, a J or 10 may still be good. BUT.. you also could have a smaller flush draw here. I would suggest a fold if you get in this spot.


Further more.. something I might add for your consideration, the difference in pot size if you didnt bet so much preflop. Say you opened for 2.5x BB here so 1000 which is usually what I bet vs a 400 big blind with any raising hand. 2 callers makes this pot only 3200, half pot bet and called makes the pot only 6400 rather than 7800. Now you have a little more wiggle room later in the hand to make a move at this pot without risking your entire stack. Just something to think about.


This is a good one for discussion, I would be interested to hear what everyone has to say about this.

Wiz

Sunday 50K Guarantee changes

The sunday 50K on our site is now a freezeout, you can buyin for just 109.00 and no addons or rebuys. Should be some nice overlays depending on the new traffic coming from the new sites joining the merge network this week.

also, some decent sattelites in the SNG, then Sattelite tab, buyin for 550 pts or 11.00, first place is 109 seat and free 11 sat for 2nd.

In my opinion, sattelites are now alot more beneficial for this trney, before you could sattelite in but u still had to at least addon to give yourself a shot. No you dont.

Wiz

http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/


If youre not already on a merge site, or you want to play where I play, and get daily 30%rakeback in your acct, click this link or one of the GR88.com ads on my blog.

http://record.gr88.com/_6WZRYfr0X_b6PBA04iUMN2Nd7ZgqdRLk/

Playing QJ suited vs Ranges

So.. you've got QJ pretty early position.. blinds are 125/250, you have 5500 chips
What do you do? Answer here_________________________. Me, I fold.

So, this guy raises to 500, horrible play. Why? Out of position, smallish bet, prob just get called by an assortment of pairs, connectors, big cards, etc. IF you are going to play this hand, I would suggest a limp (fold to any 3 bets) although I hate that play, or at least a raise to 750 to get rid of some hands and maybe pickup blinds and still fold to a 3bet.

So.. the rest of the story is, I'm in the BigBlind with AA, and 7500 chips. So, what do i do, he raises to 500, I kind of took this guy for a medium to large pair wanting action. So, I just jam it all in, what's he do? He calls. Flop, JJ4, the rest is history.

So.. I was laying in bed, wondering how anyone could be such and idiot to call off their entire stack with QJ I just had to get back up and go check this against my poker stove range finder. I mean, I hate KQ to an allin, and this is a whole level down from that. I just would like to ask this dude, "DO You EVER win?" I seriously doubt it.

Well, the #s are up., I would say someone in that situation, jamming it all in over the top with a big stack of at least 30+ bigblinds is easily in the top 10% of hands OR BETTER. Which is pairs 88 and up. Q10suited and up, and KQoff and up. His pot equity vs that range was 32.2%.

BUT.. lets look at how many hands have him COMPLETELY dominated, out of the 16 other hands in the top 10%, 11 of those 16 have him dominated and his equity vs those hands was 23.4%. He was literally at the absolute bottom of that range, only ahead of one hand in that list, the lowly Q10suited. WHY would you ever call a bet like that when you have a healthy stack, 20BBs after a fold, and you should try to understand that your hand has an equity of between 23.4% and at BEST case scenario 32.2% vs that range.

In this case, his equity was 15.07%. Lucky me, the dominated hands have been getting me this whole weekend, BUT I am still winning every day. I guess that is because I don't put myself in those positions.

By the way, I love my new site on merge, www.gr88.com, we have a site only 100K FREEROLL coming up in May. If you want to check it out, click on one of my links on the side of the page. You also will begin getting 30% rakeback DAILY deposited into your acct at 12:15AM of you use those links. I always like to tell everyone, what do I get if you click my link. Well, I get 10% rakeback off of your play. But.. if you join, you also can get on that program by joining the GR88affiliate program. Contact me and I will be glad to discuss how that can benefit you.

Thanks for reading

Feel free to holler to chat anytime:

wizardmickey1 - Gr88 - GlobalAlias on Merge (sharkscope) wizrdmickey
@wizardmickey Twitter
wizardmickey skype
wizardmickey33 on yahoo IM or email

Digging into odds vs Ranges using pokerstove.com

Digging into odds vs Ranges using pokerstove.com
I wrote this January 5th this year on another site i write on, i also posted it on LTUs blog, but its my favorite, and I put some time into it so i wanted to get it over here as well.
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I've been trying to get back to the basics, one of the ways that I do this is analyze hands that im in with versus the range of my opponents. Some free software you should have and should download if dont have it is www.pokerstove.com.

At first glance, this looks basic and youll be like, well, how could I use this in a real world situation. Granted, alot of what this software does is give you detailed information, in hindsite. Well... that doesnt do you any good in the middle of a tourney. But.. what it can do is teach you, you also can make some charts to help yourself know the strength of your hand in real-time or use the model I designed below.

I use 4 different models of ranges, you should goto pokerstove and type in these percentages to see the hand ranges I am discussing.

A This is general range of player either limping or opening a pot, in pokerstove, it consists of approx the top 32.9% of all hands

B Loose raising range -- this could be used by first player entering pot from mid- late position in a 8-10 handed game, this range consists of approx the top 20.4% of all hands

C Early position raising hands, this range is for an early position raise in a 8-10 man game, primarily I am talking about tournaments with approx 20-30x blind structure, this range consists of approx the top 12.4% of all hands

D Lastly is your tight range, this range will usually be a reraise, all in shove, or bubble playable hand vs a raise, this range consists of approx the top 4.2% of all hands.

Now.. what you should do is start to look at hands that you could have and how would they play against these ranges. Your next step in a tourney when entering a pot, raising into a pot, reraising or moving all in versus an opponent is trying to put them on one of these 4 ranges of hands. You then should be analyzing how they play to give you a better idea of what ranges they already play and then determine the situation in the game and which they might be on. Then, you analyze your hand strength based on that range. The idea is to try to get your money in with the best of most times.. You cant always win, but if you're consistently getting your money in with the best of it, youll win alot more. Ill give some samples below and then you can go on and do your own.


opponents projected range-> A 32.9% B 20.4% C 12.4% D 4.2%

My hand - percent equity
78suited * 37.9% 36.7% 34.8% 27.7%
55 49.1% 45.7% 42.7% 31.5%
1010 64.4% 55.2% 54.2% 41.2%
A6 ** 47.3% 42.7% 37.2% 27.1%
AJ 59.6% 55.57 48.7% 31.2%
KQ 52.9% 49.4% 43.1% 31.2%
AQ 61.9% 58.9% 54.1% 34.2%
AK 64.7% 62.5% 59.9% 43.8%
AA 84.9% 84.5% 84.6% 82.8%

* includes other suited connectors from 2-3s to 9-10suited
** would also include other A-rag hands like A2-A8


Try to put this to use when you're looking at your hand in different areas of the tourney and wondering where you are vs other players in the hand. This will help you play "theoretically" better poker, what I mean by that is playing your hand perfectly as if you knew what the other player was holding. PART 2 ---------------------------------------------------

HAving a conversation about this with a buddy and I came up with some more scenarios...
Lets say youre in a tourney... youre either huge stacked or maybe pretty shortacked and you need to gamble to tripleup to get back in for a run... So a mid position raisers goes all in, we will give him the B range of 20.4% of the best hands.. so youre on the small blind, all of the sudden the button goes all in also for the same chips.. We assume he has a better hand range and we will give him a range of C the top 12.4% of hands. You could either have a small, stack wanting to triple, medium stack in which case youre going to have to consider this calling option alot more carefully, or possibly have them both covered by 3-1, in which case you might consider calling to knock them both out. S0.. we will run the same hands above, but we will check our equity vs both of these opponents with the same group of hands.



Your pot equity in a 3 handed all-in vs a B level estimated range and a C level estimated range with the following hands...

So youre over 50% chance to lose the hand in the sitation with all of these but AA, but youre also 26% to win the hand with even a suited connector.. worth the consideration in some situations. 78s 26.9%
55 29.5%
1010 38.4%
A6 23.7%
AJ 32.2% AQ 36.8%
AK 41.9%
AA 73.6%

Knowledge is power, odds and what you know and how you use them are a huge part of this game, consider them carefully in your decision making.

You should consider printing this out so you start to understand your equity vs different ranges of hands, and players. Very good stuff if i dont say so myself.


chuck
wizrdmickey
wizardmickey33 yahoo IM
@wizardmickey twitter

Playing - Folding QK

Overplaying QK is a big pet Peave of mine, players who do it are rarely getting their money in good. I ran some analysis of that hand vs some ranges and I want to share them with you to help you think about your play with this hand. Don't get me wrong, QK is a top hand, BUT.. vs the ranges that want to play big or all in pots, its a horribly dominated hand.

Here's some #'s vs the top 10% of hands, QK holds 39% equity.
Vs the top 5% of hands which are the one that REALLY want to get all in and play an all in pot, you have a 30% hand equity. You are dominated by 55% of those hands which mean you are 22.9% equity vs 6 of the 11 top 5% of hands. This is why QK is a horrible hand vs a raise.

In all reality, consider the hand ranges that people want to shove with, can you think of ANY that you are ahead of? I Can think of 1... KJ. other than that, youre a slight underdog to any pair, any Ace, and dominated by AK, AQ, AA KK QQ. Yuck. I like to get my money in good.

When is this hand good to play, or get it all in with?

1- small stack shoves and youre sitting there with a big stack 4-5x the small stacks size,
2- youre the first one in from late pos with either a large stack or small stack and want to pickup the blinds

Other than that
I use it when I am the first one in from late pos, just picking up blinds, but not intending to call an ALLIN bet.

Otherwise, I dont have whole lot of use for this dominated hand, often times if you flop 2 pair, youre facing a str8 or str8 draw, just so many ways for it to get you in trouble. Try to shy from playing big pots with this crack hand. Youre rarely ahead and youll just get snapped off and be wondering what you were thinking getting your money in with that hand.

What a beat... Quads go down to Royal

Crazy hand from a tourney the other night.. Abraham Blumpkin raises my BB where I sit with AA, I flat him and flop a set.. he bets, I flat again, and turn quads, now im hoping he catches something. Texture of the board was pretty ugly with AQ10 of diamonds but.. im not too worried about it sitting with Quads... we check check the turn, and the Kd hits the river, of course im shipping it in with my quads, and he instacalls with KJ, flopped a str8, and rivered a royal with the Jdiamonds... Probably the highest qualifying bad beat I have ever had.. Too bad it wasnt a cash game, nice bad beat jackpot payout there.

Head-UP SitNGos Part 1-4 Below

I wrote a series of articles on playing HU sngs at my site on merge back in October and November of 09 on another blog, I wanted to repost those here:

I'll try to give out a few ideas and tips ive been working on.

Lesson 1 - split the tourney up into 4 quarters. you should always be on the tab that shows hand counts so you know when blinds are about to go up. (Every 10 hands in the lower buyin levels, and every 15 hands in 100.00 buyin and up). 1st Qtr Hands 1-10, 2nd Qtr 11-20, 3rd qtr 21-30, and 4th qtr 31-40 anything over 40 is sudden death overtime. Get to know the blind structure for each, make notes of your chip stacks in each. These tournaments are as much about knowing where u are in the tourney, and knowing your players style than they are about poker or your cards..trust me.

If you're going to play the hand on the button, Raise, you want more money in the pot when you have position, if you're raisng every button and he isnt, you have a huge advantage. If you miss the flop but he checks, dont be afraid to fire a C bet (continuation) out, usually half to 60% of pot is enough to take it down. If he calls.. you have the option to slow down, or fire another bullet on the turn or slow down and wait for a better opportunity. If I think he is drawing, or if I have a strong draw or 2 over cards, ill probably fire another half pot bet on the turn.

My raising suggestions for each quarter:

1- 3x (to 45)

2 2.5x (to 75)

3 2.5x (to 125)

4 2- 2.5x (to 100-150)

5-and up ALL IN or FOLD.. Raise with every hand that isnt dirt because this is luck time unfortunately.. if you don't win before this round.. you are at the mercy of the poker gods.

Remember.. an effective stack is the size of the smallest stack.. if you or your opponent is less than 10% of the blind, push it all in if youre going to commit to the hand.

Aggressiveness is the key.. push till they push back and then decide if you'll call, fold, or push.

Gentle pressure applied relentlessly is my key. Find out what type of opponent your playing against and make notes.

Loose aggressive, tight aggressive, loose passive, tight passive is your matrix.

Then you want to find the ideal strategy for beating that style. I'll get into that in a later blog when i have more time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PART 2 PLAYER MATRIX

Ok.. been thinking alot about this part of my game, also reading and watching a video or 2.

I wanted to give some credit to Collin Moshman, some of the information I am passing along in this blog came out of his book, Heads-up Nolimit Holdem.

In Pt 1 I mentioned the 4 player type Matrix, it looks kind of like this:



Loose Aggressive : Loose Passive

(LAG) (LOP)

--------------------------------------------------------------------



Tight Aggressive : Tight Passive

(TAG) (TIP)



Characteristics and Approach

Loose Aggressive - The Maniac

*Raises any two cards preflop

*Raises and bets unusually high amounts

*Will usually shoot at least 2 large bets after the flop

APPROACH

Lose alot of smaller pots and "WAIT TO WIN" the big one

Sometimes you have to be willing to put your chips at risk with less than premium holding

Raise less often on the button

Limp Connect and let him hang himself

Do not semi bluff your draws on this guy


Tight Aggressive

When a TAG rais preflop you can usuaully put them on A7 and up, QTs and up, KT and up or a pair. Bet a low flop like 223 and they'll usually fold.

APPROACH

Play Loose Aggressive Style vs the Tight Aggressive

Bet and Raise often

Raise most buttons and C bet Frequently

Give up if played back at



Tight Passive (TIP) - Easiest to play


Takes and above ave hand for him to call and stronger hand for him to bet



APPROACH

Play a loose Aggressive style vs this opponent

Win lots of small pots but don't get in a big pot with him unless you are very strong

Bet and raise and win hand after hand

Raise and bet bet most hands



Loose Passive - The Calling Station



Exploitable but be careful

Play tight aggressive vs this opponent

They will call bet after bet and can be very frustrating

APPROACH

Wait for above ave hand and bet for value

Preflop tighten your hand ranges

If your opponent raises, FOLD unless very strong

Try to check down post flop if missed
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
PART Trey Take me to the River

Crucial part of HU sng strategy is your river play..

So.. the hand is still alive and you're looking at that river card...

These are all of the things that I am thinking during a hand and what I think about when I reach the river A-How can I win this hand? or B- How can I get as much value as possible from this hand?

***Most Importantly***

** What was the story he told with his betting/calling pattern?***

Should you Bet, Call, Fold, Bluff, Raise, checkraise



A - How strong is your hand? Always remember the theory of poker, you always want to bet and gain as much value as if you can see the other players cards:

Some considerations

1- Are you putting him on a hand? Did he catch a draw?

2-How strong is he? How much should I bet to make him laydown a worse hand? Will he?

3- Do you have him crushed or Marginally beat? Then How much will he call? Or should I check?

4-Was he drawing? Will he call a bet, or should you check?



B- Your strength obviously is the starting point.. always bet for value when you are sure you have the lead, but don't ever bet a hand that will only be called by a better hand: for example, you have top set, but there are 4 to a straight or a flush on the board. What would you do if your opponent reraised you? If you would have to fold, you're better off check calling or check folding depending on your strength.

Winning Move

C- One tip I will offer from my experience.. if the hand is kind of lagging, or if you raised PF but small flop hit and there were no real bets or raises, then a face card hits the turn or river that you don't have, but its checked to you, feel free to take a stab at it 1/2-3/4 pot bet, you'll be surprised how many times you can take it down right there. Those xtra chips can add up to 50 increase over the course of 40 hands and that can be the difference for you.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part IV FINISH HIM



The key to finishing HU sit and gos are the relative stack. the relative stack is the smallest stack. If a player has 500 and you have 2500, you literally are playing with 500 chips, if you double him up, you can reload 1000 but he can't if he loses. You have to think about the smallest stack vs the big blind. If you have your opponent down to 500 chips and the blinds are 3rd or 4th quarter ( 25/50) or (50/100) then its all in time. If you're going to play, then ship them all in. I usually use 10% as a rule of thumb. Of course, if you're in the big blind with a bad hand, say 48 or something similar and he calls, by all means see a flop, you can always fire a min bet at the flop to see if he folds, generally if he misses he will fold because his stack is so short and he showed no real strength preflop. Remember.. If you're in this situation a good hand is anything from 67suited and any suited connectors higher, 2 cards over 9, or any K or any A. If you're on the other end and the player has pushed in on you, if he is an aggressive opponent don't be afraid to call with any of these if you're in for more than 10% of your stack. Its crucial to keep your foot on the pedal when you got him on the roaps.. when you're down, don't blind yourself out, fight back, you have no other option. If you lose, you lose, but like my dad told me when I was a kid playing baseball, 'Son, I don't mind if you strike out, but just don't go down Looking". Make sure you go down fighting and not folding all your chips away until you have no ammo left.


Thanks for Reading hope this helps you out


Wizardmickey

@wizardmickey twitter
yahoo IM and email wizardmickey33

Playing on a new site

Switched to a new poker site on merge this month due to my previous site, shutting down all the guarantee tourneys. Each site on the network has to pay their share of the cost of the overlays and it got to be too much for my site.

I am now at www.Gr88.com. This is a promo commercial youll soon be seeing on TV during poker events.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBBWWd9u09Y



Below is my bonus code, if youre interested you will have 30% rakeback deposited into your acct at 12:15 am for anything you did that day. Very good deal there. They have all the guaranteed tournesy and more of their own promotional tourneys. Also, you can just click on the links on my page to take you directly to the download page.

http://record.gr88.com/_6WZRYfr0X_b6PBA04iUMN2Nd7ZgqdRLk/

Let me know what you think of the site and my new blog. More material up soon.

Wizardmickey1 (GR88.com)
@wizardmickey twitter
yahoo IM and email wizardmickey33@yahoo.com